Scoop: U.S. warns Israel "limited war" with Lebanon could draw Iran to intervene
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
A Hezbollah flag hangs on rubble of destroyed houses in the Lebanese southern village of Naqura, located at the Lebanese-Israeli border. Photo: Marwan Naamani/picture alliance via Getty Images
The Biden administration has cautioned Israel in recent weeks against the notion of "a limited war" in Lebanon and warned it could push Iran to intervene, two U.S. officials and one Israeli official told Axios.
Why it matters: The exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah that has been ongoing since the Oct. 7 terrorist attack by Hamas dramatically escalated in the last two weeks, prompting some people inside the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli Cabinet to call for significantly expanding the fighting against Hezbollah.
- U.S. and Israeli officials said there is growing concern in the IDF and the Israeli Ministry of Defense that the situation in Lebanon is reaching a turning point. The U.S. and France have been trying to find a diplomatic solution to reduce tensions at the border but haven't made progress yet.
- Preventing an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah that could lead to wide-ranging destruction in Lebanon and Israel has been a key objective for the Biden administration in its efforts to prevent the fighting in Gaza from expanding into a much wider regional conflict.
- But the Biden administration believes it will be impossible to restore calm to the Israeli-Lebanese border without a ceasefire in Gaza.
Behind the scenes: U.S. officials told Axios the Biden administration told Israel it doesn't think "a limited war" in Lebanon or a "small regional war" is a realistic option because it will be difficult to prevent it from widening and spinning out of control.
- The Biden administration warned Israel that a ground invasion of Lebanon, even if it is only in the areas close to the border, would likely push Iran to intervene, U.S. and Israeli officials said.
- One scenario the administration raised with Israel is that Lebanon could be flooded with militants from pro-Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq and even Yemen who would want to join the fighting.
Driving the news: Skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah along the border have been steadily escalating over the last eight months. Many of the Israeli villages and towns near the border are deserted.
- More than 60,000 Israelis who were evacuated from the area after Hezbollah began attacking northern Israel on Oct. 8 haven't been able to return to their homes.
- Both sides increased the range of their attacks in recent weeks. Hezbollah launched drones and rockets against IDF targets as far as 50 kilometers (about 30 miles) from the border.
- "[We] will continue to fight with strength and intelligence until the task is completed — returning the security and the sense of security to the North. This responsibility is clear and rests on our shoulders," commanding officer of the IDF's Northern Command Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin said.
Earlier this week, Hezbollah attacks and extremely hot weather ignited huge forest fires across northern Israel that took more than 48 hours to extinguish.
- The fires and growing public criticism of the government over the war of attrition in the north led to an emergency war Cabinet meeting on Tuesday night.
The big picture: A senior IDF official said that the situation has been escalating since May because Hezbollah conducted more successful drone attacks against Israeli targets that weren't intercepted.
- At the same time, Hezbollah started launching "Burkan" rockets with 1,000-pound to 2,000-pound warheads that caused significant damage to IDF bases along the border.
What they're saying: State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Wednesday that the U.S. remains "incredibly concerned about the risk of escalation along the Israel-Lebanon border."
- "We have been engaged in intense diplomatic conversations and intense diplomatic negotiations to try to avoid that conflict from escalating beyond control."
- "Israel has long maintained privately to us — and they've said it publicly too — that their preferred solution to this conflict is a diplomatic one," Miller said.
- Escalation of the conflict "would lead to further loss of life from both Israelis and the Lebanese people and would greatly harm Israel's overall security and stability in the region."
What to watch: No decisions were made in the war Cabinet meeting, but the IDF presented several options for expanding the fighting, including a ground invasion aimed at pushing Hezbollah's elite Radwan force away from the border, the IDF official said.
- He stressed that since Oct. 7, the IDF's directive from political leaders has been to focus on defeating Hamas in Gaza and avoiding war in Lebanon. The official said changing this policy could have far-reaching consequences.
- The IDF official said war with Hezbollah or a limited operation in Lebanon would have "huge implications for Israel" and, after costing lives and draining resources, likely result in an agreement similar to that currently being sought between Israel and Lebanon.
- "We need to understand this before making decisions," he said.
Go deeper: Domino effect
